Lascou em encruou: Nova pesquisa do Ibope, desta quinta, Aécio parou e Dilma pulou e passou

Ibope (Foto: Arte/G1)
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Pesquisa Ibope divulgada nesta quinta-feira (23) aponta os seguintes percentuais de votos válidos no segundo turno da corrida para a Presidência da República:
– Dilma Rousseff (PT): 54%
– Aécio Neves (PSDB): 46%

Para calcular esses votos, são excluídos da amostra os votos brancos, os nulos e os eleitores que se declaram indecisos. O procedimento é o mesmo utilizado pela Justiça Eleitoral para divulgar o resultado oficial da eleição.
A pesquisa foi encomendada pela TV Globo e pelo jornal “O Estado de S. Paulo”.
No levantamento anterior do instituto, divulgado no dia 15, Aécio tinha 51% e Dilma, 49%.

Votos totais
Se forem incluídos os votos brancos e nulos e dos eleitores que se declaram indecisos, os votos totais da pesquisa estimulada são:
– Dilma Rousseff (PT): 49%
– Aécio Neves (PSDB): 41%
– Branco/nulo: 7%
– Não sabe/não respondeu: 3%
O Ibope ouviu 3.010 eleitores em 203 municípios entre os dias 20 e 22 de outubro. A margem de erro é de dois pontos percentuais para mais ou para menos. O nível de confiança é de 95%, o que quer dizer que, se levarmos em conta a margem de erro de dois pontos, a probabilidade de o resultado retratar a realidade é de 95%. A pesquisa está registrada no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) sob o número BR-01168/2014.

Rejeição
O Ibope perguntou, independentemente da intenção de voto, em qual candidato o eleitor não votaria de jeito nenhum. Veja os números:
Aécio – 42%
Dilma – 36%

Expectativa de vitória
O Ibope também perguntou aos entrevistados quem eles acham que será o próximo presidente da República, independentemente da intenção de voto. Para 51%, Dilma sairá vitoriosa; 38% acreditam que Aécio ganhará; 10% não sabem ou não responderam.

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