Analistas veem Congresso mais hostil a Dilma, diz o Congresso em Foco

Presença recorde de partidos, vitória apertada e consolidação do PSB como partido oposicionista devem piorar relação da presidenta com o Parlamento no próximo mandato, acreditam cientistas políticos

De olho no problema: PSB na oposição

Com a expectativa de um ano de arrocho na economia, na perspectiva de que a crise mundial ainda não estará superada, a presidenta Dilma Rousseff (PT), reeleita com 51,64% dos votos válidos no domingo (26), terá como principal desafio a relação com a nova composição da Câmara dos Deputados. Dois dramas devem pautar a relação com o novo Congresso. O primeiro é conseguir impor a agenda de votações que interessa ao Executivo, com projetos importantes como, por exemplo, a ampliação da faixa de renda a ser beneficiada pelo programa Minha Casa, Minha Vida. O segundo desafio é assegurar a fidelidade da nova base aliada que desembarcará na Câmara.

Pesam contra a petista dois fatores. Um deles é a margem apertada pela qual foi reeleita, apenas 3,28% pontos percentuais em relação ao senador tucano Aécio Neves. A outra é o histórico de relação ruidosa com o Congresso Nacional em seu primeiro mandato, pautado pela alegada falta de diálogo – reclamação recorrente de congressistas, inclusive da base.

Diretor da Arko Consultoria e analista político, Lucas de Aragão lembra que a formação do novo Congresso, com 28 partidos, criaria dificuldades para qualquer presidente. “Para Dilma, deve ser um problemão conversar com os líderes partidários. Porque ela não tem paciência para fazer política, ficar recebendo os líderes, diferente do Aécio, que tem uma essência mais política”, analisa.

Dilma Rousseff terá uma base aliada de 304 deputados na próxima legislatura. Atualmente, a petista conta com 340 parlamentares da situação, de acordo com o Departamento Intersindical de Assessoria Parlamentar (Diap). Em 2010, quando se elegeu pela primeira vez, Dilma chegou a ter uma base de 420 deputados. No Senado, os nove partidos que integraram a coligação encabeçada pela petista vão ocupar 53 das 81 cadeiras (65%).

“Mais do que criar base numérica, você precisa saber liderar. Por mais que o potencial da aliança de Dilma seja numericamente maior, pode não ser uma base leal, com adesão. Não podemos ficar muito presos aos números, mas 70% de apoio formal de Dilma neste primeiro mandato não se traduziu em lealdade. Foi o pior nível de fidelidade desde a gestão de Fernando Collor”, conta o analista, referindo-se ao período entre 1990 e 1992, quando Collor sofreu impeachment.

Aragão destaca que a atuação dos deputados a partir de fevereiro será ainda mais centrada no corporativismo, com o aumento das bancadas evangélica, militar e ruralista. “O que leva a crer que o novo Congresso será muito corporativista é o que pauta a maioria das decisões. Eles atuam em cima de interesses unificados e bem desenhados dentro do que o eleitor dele quer. Essas bancadas vão deixar o Congresso mais lento, o que pode atrasar a pauta do bem comum”, afirma Lucas.

Fator PSB

Já o professor Túlio Velho Barreto, da Diretoria de Pesquisas Sociais Fundação Joaquim Nabuco, destaca o acirramento da disputa como um complicador para a presidente. “O fato de os principais partidos terem diminuído – ainda que permaneçam com hegemonia – vai forçar a presidente a negociar com todos eles. Além disso, Dilma vai enfrentar o próprio PSB, que deve fazer uma oposição sistemática”, destaca o cientista político.

A oposição, formada pelos 19 partidos que apoiaram a candidatura de Aécio Neves no primeiro ou no segundo turno, contará com 204 deputados. Além disso, o Psol, mesmo tendo apoiado publicamente Dilma Rousseff, deixou claro em documento divulgado ao final do primeiro turno que manteria sua posição independentemente e de críticas à atual gestão.

Professor e pesquisador da Universidade Federal da Bahia, Joviniano Neto avalia que a essência da formação do palanque da presidenta é que gerou problemas com o Congresso. “O problema da Dilma é que ela foi candidata apoiada por dez partidos e por grupos sociais que iam desde a direita à esquerda, gerando uma luta política dentro da base dela. Os partidos que apoiavam Dilma representam setores divergentes”, destaca, referindo-se à primeira eleição da petista.

Entraves

Lucas de Aragão, da Arko Consultoria, acredita que os problemas que o Congresso Nacional costuma apresentar vão continuar. Para ele, falar em reformas neste momento soa inútil. “O Brasil não é um país que gosta de reformas. O nosso eleitor prefere que as mudanças aconteçam de maneira lenta. Essa ideias de reforma política ou tributária não enche os olhos dos brasileiros”, destaca o cientista político.

Ele lembra que a relação entre Executivo e Legislativo no Brasil sempre foi complexa, mesmo nas gestões dos ex-presidentes Lula e Fernando Henrique, que tinham amplo apoio popular. “O Legislativo não entrega problemas diferentes de acordo com o presidente. O Congresso apresenta suas demandas e elas custam caro. Nós temos Congresso mais influente da América do Sul. O parlamento no Brasil é muito forte”, destaca.

Túlio Velho Barreto atribui os problemas do Legislativo e do Executivo à forma com que são conduzidas as negociações do apoio. “Esse formato de toma lá, da cá custa muito caro ao presidente. A barganha para ministérios e estatais, por exemplo. A característica mais forte do presidencialismo de coalizão é custo dos apoios”, conclui.

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